13.11.08

Mary Meeker analysis

"Mary Meeker had put out an interesting analysis that showed the correlation between GDP and advertising spend at 81%.
Based on that analysis, at a 0% GDP growth rate, one would see a 4% decline in overall advertising.

With a 2% contraction in GDP, one would expect to see 8% decline in advertising...There will be a continuing rotation of dollars from legacy advertising markets to online advertising. This contraction could put MAJOR pressure on the traditional media players. In particular... the newspapers, who still generate over $38 billion in advertising, with content that is often readily available from hundreds of sources, including blogs of which many are viewed as more “authentic” to young readers.

Those who produce premium content, or content that has a high cost of production, controlled distribution, and long shelf life (eg the networks, film studios, etc) will have to work through their transitional issues and the current tough environment but will survive and thrive online....Search will grow much faster than display, as people will release dollars only to the extent they are certain they will see them back very shortly.
Other areas of robust growth will include online video and in gaming advertising, as people increase time on leisure entertainment. Online video will get even more compelling as we get beyond the pre-roll only..."

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